Kathmandu — The United States is set to complete the withdrawal of its troops from Iraq by Wednesday, ending a more than two-decade-long military presence in the country. More than 4,500 US troops were killed during the Iraq war. Iran and its allied groups have portrayed the US withdrawal as a victory.
The withdrawal is being carried out by the administration of President Donald Trump under an agreement reached during the tenure of former President Joe Biden in 2024. The decision has drawn attention because the US is withdrawing its forces from Iraq while tensions and conflict involving Iran continue.
Security analysts have warned that the withdrawal could give Iran and its allied groups greater room to expand their influence in Iraq and could also create opportunities for militant groups such as Islamic State to regroup.
Iraqi security analyst Jasim al-Bahadli said the removal of US troops, which had helped balance Iranian influence for years, would provide Iran with a strategic advantage. He said Iran-backed Shiite armed groups could portray the withdrawal as a victory and use it to increase their influence over security and political decision-making.
Abu Mujtaba al-Yasiri, a commander of the Iran-backed group Islamic Resistance in Iraq, described the US withdrawal as a victory for Iran-aligned groups and a defeat for the American project. He said September 30 would be celebrated as the end of what he called a “dark page” in Iraqi history, arguing that Iraq’s sovereignty should be protected through resistance and the will of its people rather than foreign forces.
Although the withdrawal is popular among many ordinary Iraqis, some groups remain concerned about the possible strengthening of Iran-backed factions. Abdulrahman al-Jubai, a Sunni tribal leader from Fallujah, said Iraq was not yet fully prepared to take responsibility for its own security. He said many Iraqis were concerned about a potential security vacuum following the coalition’s departure.
The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Sunni ruler Saddam Hussein. A Shiite-led government was subsequently established, and US forces began withdrawing in 2011. However, American forces expanded their presence again from 2014 to 2017 as part of the campaign against the Sunni extremist group Islamic State.
More US troops were killed during military operations in Iraq than during the Afghanistan war. In recent years, Iraq has maintained close relations with both Washington and Tehran, while Iraqi territory has also been used as a battleground in the rivalry between the two powers.
Following the US killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qasem Soleimani at Baghdad airport in 2020, Iran-backed groups repeatedly attacked US bases in Iraq. Of the 18 American troops killed during this year’s conflict with Iran, seven were killed in Iraq.
Iran has portrayed the US withdrawal as a victory for its so-called “Axis of Resistance” across the Middle East. Amir Hayat Moghaddam, deputy head of Iran’s parliamentary National Security Commission, welcomed the withdrawal and said it would contribute to lasting security in Iraq.
At the same time, concerns are growing that dormant Islamic State militants could become active again following the US withdrawal. Islamic State controlled roughly one-third of Iraq at the height of its territorial expansion, and sleeper cells remain active.
Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said the absence of US intelligence, military and drone support could provide Islamic State with an opportunity to reorganize.
